Trade and Migration

El libre comercio internacional es la oportunidad más grande de mejorar el bienestar humano en la próxima década y media. Ya ayudó a sacar de la pobreza a más de mil millones de personas en el último cuarto de siglo. Y en los próximos quince años, reducir más las barreras al comercio puede duplicar el ingreso medio de las regiones más pobres del mundo.

Sí, el libre comercio conlleva costos que hay que encarar mejor; pero son ampliamente superados por los beneficios. Sin embargo, en los países ricos, hoy los ánimos están en su contra. Es trágico que así sea.

Der globale Freihandel bietet die größte Chance, das Gemeinwohl in den nächsten anderthalb Jahrzehnten zu steigern. Er hat bereits dazu beigetragen, während des vergangenen Vierteljahrhunderts mehr als eine Milliarde Menschen aus der Armut zu heben. Eine weitere Senkung der Handelsbarrieren könnte die Durchschnittseinkommen in den ärmsten Teilen der Welt in den nächsten 15 Jahren mehr als verdoppeln.

Největší příležitost zlepšit během příští dekády a půl blahobyt lidí představuje globální volný obchod. V průběhu uplynulého čtvrtstoletí už pomohl vyzvednout z chudoby víc než miliardu lidí. Další snížení obchodních bariér by v nejchudších částech světa ještě během příštích 15 let mohlo zdvojnásobit průměrné příjmy.

Ano, volný obchod má určité náklady, s nimiž je třeba se vypořádat; nad těmito náklady ale ohromně převažují přínosy. Přesto se dnes nálada v bohatých zemích otočila proti volnému obchodu. To je tragédie.

Like many places around the globe, Bangladesh has made great strides in liberalising trade over recent decades. 25 ago, the protection rate, which takes into account tariffs and other trade barriers, was 74 percent. Today, that rate is just 27 percent.

In Bangladesh, remittances from people living and working abroad added up to nearly Tk. 1.2 trillion last year—more than four times the nearly Tk. 250 billion that foreign aid agencies spent in the country.

Almost 5 percent of the total working age population is now migrant workers, and every year, roughly half a million more people leave the country to work overseas. Bangladesh Bank estimates that they send the equivalent of 7.4 percent of GDP back to family and friends, from 2001-2015; this totalled to Tk. 9.6 trillion.

In northern rural Bangladesh, the autumn lean season is the most difficult time of year, especially in Rangpur, where close to half of the 15.8 million residents live below the poverty line.

The landless poor in Rangpur primarily work as day laborers on neighboring farms. But in September, while waiting for crops to mature in the fields, there is no farm work to be done. Wages fall, and at the same time, food becomes scarce because harvest is still months away, so the price of rice goes up.

If ratified, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that was recently agreed to in Atlanta will be one of the most significant poverty-reduction measures this decade. And what really needs to happen next in the fight against poverty is the introduction of global free trade, so nobody misses out.

The TPP agreement is significant, but covers just 40 per cent of the world’s economy. Negotiations have been going on for five years.

Later this week, world leaders will gather in New York at the United Nations to endorse international development goals for the next 15 years. It is the culmination of a four-year process for setting priorities to help the world’s most disadvantaged people—a process beset from the start by horse-trading, haggling and endless consultation. In a bid not to offend anyone, the new development agenda is expected to include an incredible 169 targets for investment. Giving priority to 169 things is the same as giving priority to nothing at all.

Pope Francis’s much-vaunted Encyclical is rightly concerned with helping the world’s poorest. Climate change will have a bigger impact on poorer people. But the real question is which policies and investments would make the biggest difference for the most vulnerable.