‘Net Zero’ Fails the Cost-Benefit Test

Negotiators and activists are getting increasingly serious about the prospects of finalizing a carbon-cutting deal here in Paris. No doubt if they are successful we will see much back-slapping and exhortations of "success" in 7 days. But the bonhomie will hide a rather inconvenient truth: even if it’s successful, any deal negotiated in Paris is going to do very little to rein in temperature rises.

This article investigates the temperature reduction impact of major climate policy proposals implemented by 2030, using the standard MAGICC climate model. Even optimistically assuming that promised emission cuts are maintained throughout the century, the impacts are generally small. The impact of the US Clean Power Plan (USCPP) is a reduction in temperature rise by 0.013°C by 2100. The full US promise for the COP21 climate conference in Paris, its so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) will reduce temperature rise by 0.031°C.

Has the war in Ukraine and a reliance upon Russian fossil fuels prompted western European nations to reconsider their respective energy strategies? Bjorn Lomborg, a Hoover visiting fellow and environmental researcher, discusses ways for developed nations to reduce energy independence and battle climate change without necessarily devastating economies and lifestyles.